It’s beginning to look like Donald Trump is going to win

The night is still young, but an easy victory for Kamala Harris is already off the table

Donald Trump might pull this off. It’s too early to say; we might not know till the middle of next year, or whenever some antediluvian state finishes counting by hand. Plus Electoral College madness means that Trump could surge in the popular vote yet still lose via Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (the reverse Hillary). But consider the following:
First, he took Florida easily, including Miami-Dade. Joe Biden won that county in 2020; Hillary Clinton swept it by nearly 30 points in 2016. What’s made the difference? Trump’s doing well among Latino voters, presumably men.
Second, there are hints he’s gained ground among the affluent in Virginia, which is supposed to be a lock for Kamala; Wasps with degrees are her people.
Third, he seems to be scooping Georgia, which might have been competitive and certainly suggests the sun-belt is safe (Texas is also not in play). Fourth, an NBC exit poll gives him a six point advantage among independents in the critical state of Pennsylvania.
Exit polls generally indicate that “the future of democracy” is a leading issue, which breathless TV commentators assumed was a good sign for Harris. But lots of Republicans think the Democrats stole the election in 2020, so they might be recording concern for that issue as well.
The other major matter is the economy, and Trump polls stronger than Kamala on that one for obvious reasons (ie inflation). No wonder election betting seems to slightly favour Republicans, along with the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ.
But, yes, there’s a long night ahead, and none of us knows anything for sure. It’s a delight to watch British TV presenters disclose the latest thing they read on CNN as if it were a personal insight (”I’m predicting now that Harris will take Vermont and the Pope will carry the Vatican”).
But what we can decisively say at this juncture is that of the four options – Trump easy win, narrow win; Harris narrow win, easy win – the Harris easy win is off the table. Despite January 6, a rape trial, “eating the pets” and a comedian calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. I wonder if Joe Biden might have done better?